Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development

Figure 1-1. Post-World War II US assessment history. 1973)weremotivatedbytheemergingcon?ictsinthepost-WorldWar II period between rapidly increasing softwood harvests and declining timber growth. These are called the Outlook Studies. The last six studies (1980, 1985, 1989, 1993, 2000, 2005) have been conducted to meet the requirements of the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974. These are called the RPA Timber Assessments. 6 The Challenge of Developing Models 1. 2 SHAPING THE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM This initial chapter describes the development and speci?c structure of the Assessment System. We consider past policy analysis needs and federal legislative requirements, antecedent modeling and projection approaches, characteristics of the US forest sector, and recent trends in public and private resource management. At the federal level, and in some states and regions, the USA has a lengthy history of using resource and market models to explore policy issues and to examine the e?ects of alternative policy actions. Many of these studies have been undertaken on an irregular basis as issues emerged and resource conditions changed. The RPA legislation mandated a regular cycle of nationwide assessments by the Forest Service, examining trends and conditionsinanarrayofresourceusesandservices(climate,minerals, range,recreation,timber,andwater). ThestructureoftheAssessment System re?ects both the requirements of the RPA legislation and the unique characteristics of the US forest sector, which it is designed to simulate. IntheyearssinceenactmentoftheRPAlegislation,mana- ment directions, and objectives on both public and private lands in the USA have continued to evolve. The structure of the Assessment System has been adapted to re?ect these trends.

Long-range models that include product and resource detail are essential to meaningful analysis of both industry and resource sustainability. Taking this as it's central argument, this book provides essential reading to anyone interested in projecting the future of either the forest products market and/or the forest resource conditions. It is aimed at policy makers, model builders, researchers and graduate students who are building or using forest sector models, as well as at forest industry managers and analysts. While focusing on a specific modeling system - the US Timber Assessment models - the authors highlight the general elements that might comprise a forest-sector market model of any country or region. Approaches to policy analysis are also general and equally applicable to both national and multi-national forest policy development outside the US - particularly in relation to on-going efforts to formulate national programs of sustainable forestry. The text provides literature surveys on relevant modeling issues and policy concerns, and demonstrates the application of the modeling system using a "base case" 50 year projection and a small set of scenarios to illustrate, for example, the effects of changes in public harvest policies, global change, variations in investments in silviculture, and globalization. Darius Adams and Richard Haynes are widely recognized as leading experts in the forest sector modeling field.

Timber Assessments Supporting the Development of National Forestry Programs and Policy.- The Challenge of Developing Models to Support Forest Sector Policy Analysis.- Methodological Considerations in Developing the Timber Assessment Projection System.- Model Components.- Solid Wood-Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM).- North American Pulp & Paper Model (NAPAP).- Methods for Projecting Areas of Private Timberland and Forest Cover Types.- Timber Inventory and Management-ATLAS.- Exogenous Assumptions-Framing the Base Case and Scenarios.- Model Solution, Validation, and Control.- Projections and Scenarios.- Base Case Projection.- Evolving Views of the Future of the US Forest Sector.- The Impact of Public Harvest in the USA on North American Timber and Product Markets.- The Role of Private Management Investment in Long-Term Supply.- Globalization and World Trade.- The Impacts of Climate Change on Forestry.- Projecting Technological Change.- Long-Term Views of the US Land Base.- Lessons Learned from 25 Years of Forest Sector Modeling.- The Utility of Forest Sector Models in Addressing Forest Policy Questions.