ke chi xu fa zhan yu sheng tai zu ji mo xing de zheng he ji gai jin

zi shang shi ji 60 nian dai ji jing de chun tian fa biao yi lai ren lei jiu kai shi le dui huan jing yu fa zhan mo shi de fan si 70 nian dai zeng chang de ji xian geng yin qi le guo ji she hui dui zhe xie wen ti de guang fan guan zhu 1987 nian shi jie huan jing yu fa zhan wei yuan hui fa bu le wo men gong tong de wei lai zhong yao bao gao shou ci ming que ti chu le ke chi xu fa zhan SD ding yi ran er ru he ke xue ding liang de ping jia ke chi xu fa zhan shi qi jin reng ran mei you bei wan mei jie da de yi xiang zhong yao ke ti wei ci ren men ceng fen fen ti chu guo yi xie mo xing fang fa huo zhi biao lai jin xing yan jiu qi zhong de sheng tai zu ji mo xing EF jiu shi zui you ying xiang li de li lun zhi yi ke shi gai li lun fang fa zi shen reng ran cun zai yi xie bu zu zhe ying xiang le ta zai jie guo shang de ke kao xing he ying yong shang de tui guang xing yin ci ben yan jiu cong yi xia ji ge fang mian dui qi jin xing le bu chong he wan shan shou xian zhen dui gai mo xing de jing tai xing que fa yu ce gong neng de que xian yi he nan sheng wei li cai yong zi hui gui yi dong ping jun mo xing ARIMA dui qi jin xing zheng he mi bu le qi zai chang shi jian xu lie zu ji shu ju de fen xi yu yu ce guo cheng zhong de bu zu zeng qiang le qi zhun que du he ke kao xing jie zhao zai sheng tai zu ji qu dong li de fen xi zhong tong shi cai yong le liang zhong jiao you ying xiang de fen xi fang fa STIRPAT mo xing he PLS fang fa bing dui ta men jin xing le jie guo bi jiao wan shan le sheng tai zu ji de qu dong ji zhi ding liang fen xi ran hou chuang zao xing di ti chu le ren lei huo dong ya li gai nian gei chu le gai gai nian ding yi he he suan kuang jia bing fen xi le qi ju ti nei han zui hou gen ju zhe yi xin li lun kuang jia yi zhong guo da bu fen sheng yu wei li jin xing le an li fen xi de chu le yi xie you yi yi de jie lun bing ju ci ti chu le yi xie he li de qu yu ke chi xu fa zhan jian yi ben shu shi he huan jing di li ji guan li deng xiang guan zhuan ye de yan jiu ren yuan bao kuo xue sheng huo gong cheng ren yuan deng can kao shi yong