Assessing the Emerging US Military Basing Posture in the Mideast

As the 2011 withdrawal of US forces from Iraq approaches, the United States faces an opportunity to diversify and reset aspects of its force posture in the Mideast, in order to best contain a belligerent Iran and shape the political forces that would expel it from the region. Concurrently, Iran has made significant progress in pursuing a strategy built upon anti-access and area-denial military threats, which will threaten the future US' ability to project power using land-based aircraft in the region. The paper examines whether a robust US military basing posture, which provides such a potent cause celebre for certain Islamist audiences, can be nuanced as "presence without permanence" while still serving as an effective foundation for protection of US interests in the region. Using a risk management framework and exploring methods for hedging against strategic uncertainty, the paper argues that significant investment will be required to adequately defend forces in the region and that the US leadership will need to accept a higher level of risk for deployed units than has been customary. It concludes that by diversifying its basing options, the US is fundamentally on the right course in pursuit of operational flexibility and strategic posturing.