Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems

This IMA Volume in Mathematics and its Applications TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS TO GEOPHYSICAL SYSTEMS contains papers presented at a very successful workshop on the same title. The event which was held on November 12-15, 2001 was an integral part of the IMA 2001-2002 annual program on " Mathematics in the Geosciences. " We would like to thank David R. Brillinger (Department of Statistics, Uni versity of California, Berkeley), Enders Anthony Robinson (Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University), and Fred eric Paik Schoenberg (Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles) for their superb role as workshop organizers and editors of the proceedings. We are also grateful to Robert H. Shumway (Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis) for his help in organizing the four-day event. We take this opportunity to thank the National Science Foundation for its support of the IMA. Series Editors Douglas N. Arnold, Director of the IMA Fadil Santosa, Deputy Director of the IMA v PREFACE This volume contains a collection of papers that were presented dur ing the Workshop on Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) at the University of Minnesota from November 12-15, 2001. This was part of the IMA Thematic Year on Mathematics in the Geosciences, and was the last in a series of four Workshops during the Fall Quarter dedicated to Dynamical Systems and Ergodic Theory.

Time series methods are essential tools in the analysis of many geophysical systems. This volume, which consists of papers presented by a select, international group of statistical and geophysical experts at a Workshop on Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) at the University of Minnesota from November 12-15, 2001 as part of the IMA's Thematic Year on Mathematics in the Geosciences, explores the application of recent advances in time series methodology to a host of important problems ranging from climate change to seismology. The works in the volume deal with theoretical and methodological issues as well as real geophysical applications, and are written with both statistical and geophysical audiences in mind. Important contributions to time series modeling, estimation, prediction, and deconvolution are presented. The results are applied to a wide range of geophysical applications including the investigation and prediction of climatic variations, the interpretation of seismic signals, the estimation of flooding risk, the description of permeability in Chinese oil fields, and the modeling of NOx decomposition from thermal power plants.

Interpretation of Seismic Signals.- Nonparametric deconvolution of seismic depth phases.- State space approach to signal extraction problems in seismology.- Improved signal transmission through randomization.- Online analysis of seismic signals.- Temperature Data.- Nonstationary time series analysis of monthly global temperature anomalies.- A test for detecting changes in mean.- Spatio-temporal modelling of temperature time series: a comparative study.- Modeling North Pacific climate time series.- Assortment of Important Time Series Problems and Applications.- Skew-elliptical time series with application to flooding risk.- Hidden periodicities analysis and its application in geophysics.- The innovation approach to the identification of nonlinear causal models in time series analysis.- Non-Gaussian time series models.- Modeling continuous time series driven by fractional Gaussian noise.- List of workshop participants.