Land Use Scenarios

Detailing research supported by the U.S. Marine Corps, this text presents a study of an undeveloped area being impacted by overall regional development. Through this example, the authors explain geographic vulnerability analysis, which takes into consideration possible scenarios about how and when future patterns of land use might develop. It points to consideration of critical uncertainties, those difficult to predict aspects of the future, that must be factored into decisions. This work will aid managers and stakeholders to engage spatial contingencies toward the goal of developing more resilient landscapes that can support a primary mission as well as the conservation of natural resources.

Demonstrates how the success of local decision making is largely determined by factors that are difficult to control or forecast. This book shows the importance of geographic vulnerability analysis, which takes into consideration possible scenarios about how, where, and when future patterns of land use might develop.

Scenario-Based Studies for Landscape Planning, Allan W. Shearer The Uncertainties of Regional Development and Their Possible Effects on Natural Resources Management, Allan W. Shearer and David A. Mouat Scenario-Based Studies of Military Installations and Their Regions, Allan W. Shearer The Regional Context of MCB Camp Pendleton and MCAS Miramar, David A. Mouat Mapping Existing Conditions, David A. Mouat and Scott D. Bassett Critical Uncertainties Which Could Influence Development in the Region, Allan W. Shearer Four Scenarios and Alternative Futures of Regional Change, Allan W. Shearer, Scott D. Bassett, and David A. Mouat Hydrologic Consequences Associated with the Alternative Futures, Michael W. Binford and Justin A. Saarinen Air Quality Consequences Associated with the Alternative Futures, Alan W. Gertler and Julide Kahyaoglu-Koracin Overview: Biologic Consequences Associated with the Alternative Futures, Scott D. Bassett Vegetation, David A. Mouat Landscape Ecological Pattern, Scott D. Bassett Single Species Potential Habitat, Scott D. Bassett and Craig W. Johnson Willowy Monardella California Sycamore Fairy Shrimp Argentine Ant San Diego Coast Horned Lizard Rufous-crowned Sparrow California Gnatcatcher Western Snowy Plover Southwestern Willow Flycatcher Least Bell's Vireo Western Meadowlark Great Horned Owl Cougar Species Richness, Scott D. Bassett Discussion and Conclusions, Allan W. Shearer, Scott D. Bassett, David A. Mouat, and Michael W. Binford